In M&A, Is Flat the New Up?

By Dennis McCarthy – (213) 222-8260 – dennis@mbsecurities.com – 

In my experience with M&A deals, everything increases; it goes up.

All projections show increases in revenues and profits.  If you buy a company today, you’ll sell it for more money later.  Deals get bigger. Debt leverage goes up.  M&A multiples go up.  The M&A business, itself, goes up.  But what if…?

That’s the sobering message from  a study of middle market M&A published by Deloitte, the international accounting firm, looking back over 2011 and 2012.

Deloitte reports that between 2011 and 2012, middle market M&A was flat.  Deal volume was flat. Average deal value was flat.  Purchase price multiples were flat. Senior debt multiples were flat.  You get the idea.

But look on the bright side.  At least those metrics were flat.

International acquisitions of US middle market companies declined.

Purchase price multiples of LBOs declined.

All things considered, flat may not be so bad.  Maybe flat is the new up.

Supposedly, statistics don’t lie.  But 2012 certainly seemed to me to be a better, more active year than 2011.

Company executives I know seemed to be more confident that the economy was stable.  Not big growth but no big problems either.

Maybe we won’t see the impact of the improved environments until this year, 2013, given how long it takes to close an M&A deal,

I know I’m looking forward to an active 2013.  In any event, I’ll take flat over down every time.

I’ve attached a link to the Deloitte report below.

Please contact me to help your company with M&A or any capital market project. 

Deloitte US Middle Market M&A Stats 2012

 

Google

M&A Defense Checklist

Dennis McCarthy

(213) 222-8260

dennis@mbsecurities.com

Well, no sooner did I post “It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again” than I started getting requests for suggestions of what to include on a company’s M&A defense checklist.

You know, it’s simply good practice for a company to periodically review its M&A defenses.

But now, the task of reviewing a company’s M&A defenses takes on greater urgency.  The risk of a company getting an unsolicited offer is higher than usual now because many large companies are loaded with cash but short on revenue growth.

So what would I recommend for the checklist?

Please understand, I’m not necessarily recommending implementation of these provisions but rather suggest they be on your company’s M&A defense review list.

First on my list is a recent hot topic – proxy access rules and advance notice bylaw provisions.  Public companies should be aware of recent developments and consider updating to what’s known as “second generation” provisions.

Next on my list would be a couple charter provisions which slow aggressors.  These would be (i) restrictions on a shareholder’s ability to call a special meeting, and (ii) a prohibition on shareholder action by written consent.

Of course, we can’t forget the “poison pill” or shareholder rights plan.  While poison pills have declined in popularity over the last decade, we’ve seen several recent instances, Barnes & Noble, Airgas and Lions Gate, where a pill has played a key role in a company’s M&A defenses.

Even if you have a pill in place, there are a couple developments to note.  One development is the special purpose pill which, for example, may be used to dissuade a shareholder from triggering tax law change of ownership provisions which impairs use of a company’s net operating loss.  The second development involves expanding the definition of beneficial ownership to include sophisticated new forms of corporate ownership now available.

Another checklist item would be the classified or “staggered” board, where only a portion of the board members, typically a third, are up for shareholder vote each year.  This slows an aggressor’s efforts to change a board through a proxy battle.  A staggered board plus a pill is a powerful defensive combination.

Another defense provision is the supermajority vote which requires a high percentage of shareholders to approve an action, that is, once you’ve got your defense provisions in place.

In contrast, if your company permits cumulative voting, a small but organized minority shareholder group might be able to install a board member despite the group’s small ownership.

Certain states laws permit additional defenses or variations on these provisions.  For example, certain states permit what are known as constituency statutes which enable a board to consider the impact of an acquisition on constituencies including employees or the community, rather than just shareholders.  Depending upon your state, these extra features may be useful.

I would note here that some defense provisions can be implemented unilaterally by board action.  Others require shareholder approval which affects implementation feasibility.

In addition to these items, there are a number of tactical actions like stock buybacks and recapitalizations which can be used defensively in response to or to pre-empt hostile activity.

I recommend that a company set aside time at an upcoming board meeting for a review of its M&A defense provisions.  Company management, its attorneys, bankers and IR professionals can brief the board and make recommendations.

I can help your company to review its defenses in a timely and cost efficient manner. It’s better to be prepared.

Living with No Growth

dennismccarthy@ariesmgmt.com

(213) 222-8260

Lately, I’ve been struggling with what it will mean to live in a world of slow to no growth.

First, I tried denial.   There can’t be a world without growth.

Pick up any company annual report or analyst research report, they always project growth.

It’s in our Wall Street DNA.

We need growth to cover our costs, to justify higher salaries, to reward our shareholders?

But, what if, as is now widely expected, we face a global slowdown for our near-term future?

How do we behave in a slow to no growth world?

We’re going to have to rethink many of our basic assumptions. Here are a couple which come to mind.

First, I think cost control will become more critical without revenue growth to bail us out.

Will this trigger a power shift in companies?  Will the path to become CEO now run through accounting?

Second, I think that, without growth, current cash flow is king.  There’ll be more skepticism about the promise of future cash flow.

Will this spark a rash of corporate acquisitions as large, cash-flowing companies gobble up companies with no or low cash flow?

On the financing front, with slow to no growth, will companies borrow more to get as much financial leverage as possible.

Or, will equity securities change?  Will we see more companies begin to pay dividends or do regular stock buybacks to pay a current return to their equity shareholders.

These are just a few ideas.  There are many more potential implications.

Please contact me to discuss the capital markets implications for your company.

My contact information is below. Thank you.

dennismccarthy@ariesmgmt.com

(213) 222-8260

Capitalmarketalerts.com

Slow Road Ahead

Living with slow to no growth

What now? Where can I get capital?

dennismccarthy@ariesmgmt.com

(213) 222-8260

Well, it’s the Fall of 2011, Wall Street has been highly volatile as fears of a new recession and disarray in the Eurozone dominate the news.

As I talk with clients and friends, the discussion always comes around to the question “now what?”  What if my company needs capital?  Where can I go?

First, there’s debt.

The debt markets are open for business.  Based on my experience, finance companies and banks are lending.  The public debt market is open too.

A borrower’s projections may get more “stress testing” now but interest rates are historically low.

Second, there’s asset sales

In part because debt is available, buyers are active. If your company needs to raise cash, you might consider selling a business.

I know companies who’ve raised cash in this manner.  They’ve gotten good prices for the businesses sold and are now deploying the money. 

Third, large cash-rich corporations may be a source of capital for your company. 

Sometimes these relationships take the form of direct equity investments into your company but many times they take the form of JVs, licenses, cash advances or even simple grants.

These deals work when the relationship benefits the large company’s business, even if indirectly. 

Lastly, don’t forget equity.

You may wish for higher prices when selling equity but you should also be pragmatic.  You should ask yourself “how critical is the having cash now?  What is the investment opportunity?  Does it justify the cost of raising equity now?”

Again, my name is Dennis McCarthy.  I’m happy to discuss funding options with you.  My contact information is below.